Bitcoin macro analogue estimator — historical pattern matching across 14 macroeconomic variables

Macroeconomic conditions

US CPI inflation (%) exclude

2.8%

Federal funds rate (%) exclude

4.25%

US 10Y treasury yield (%) exclude

4.2%

DXY (US dollar index) exclude

104.0

Forward rate expectations — 12m implied (%) exclude

−0.50% (cuts priced)

Inflation expectations — 5Y breakeven (%) exclude

2.3%

Market conditions

S&P 500 exclude

5,600

Gold (USD/oz) exclude

$3,000

Oil — WTI (USD/bbl) exclude

$68

Current BTC price (USD)

$84,000

ETH price (USD) exclude

$1,900

ETH/BTC 0.0226

Sentiment & geopolitics

VIX (market fear index) exclude

22

Crypto sentiment (0–100) exclude

58 — neutral/greed

Global risk environment exclude

BTC halving cycle position exclude

Regime presets

Adjust individual factor weights below, or select a regime preset above.

Factor correlation weights

Higher weight = this factor matters more when finding analogues. Excluded factors are automatically zeroed.

Forecast horizon

Showing 90-day forward price distribution from closest historical analogues.

Closest historical analogues

Forward price distribution

Contextual interpretation

Educational and research use only. Outputs are historical pattern-matching results and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or price predictions. Past macro-price correlations are not indicative of future Bitcoin prices. Not regulated under MiCAR, MiFID II, or any financial services framework. Built by the team at Kladda Partners.